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HomeMy WebLinkAboutUpdate Documents - BOCCCOUNTYGRANT COMPREHENSIVE PLAID 2o27 To: Grant County Cities and Towns From: Nexus Planning Services, Grant County 2027 Comprehensive Plan Consultant Date: 01 /07/2026 Subject: Final Grant County Countywide Population Allocation I. Introduction This memorandum outlines the technical basis for allocatingGrant Count 's y protected population growth amongst each city and town in accordance with Washington's g s Growth Management Act {GMA}. The memo is intended to support collaborat ive tive decision -making among cities, towns, and the County as the prepare for Y p p coordinated Comprehensive Plan updates. The Revised Code of Washington (RCW) 36.70A.110 requires counties plann ing fully under the GMA to distribute the office of Financial Management's(OFM)20- g year population forecasts to each city, town and unincorporated area. This analysis y focuses exclusively on population forecasting and distribution factors, while also incor porating ng Grant County's Countywide Planning Policy (CWPP) Policy14: Population p Forecast Distribution. This policy instructs the County to allocate population using a ' p p g combination of historical growth data, documented development activity, and jurisdiction -specific Y t specific intangibles. This policy is subject to change if other factors or methodologies g are preferred by cities and towns. 11. Purpose of Countywide Population Allocation Population allocation ensures that jurisdictions throughout Grant Count Ian y p for future growth using assumptions that are coordinated, realistic, and consistent with sta te law. By establishing a shared set of population expectations for the next 20 years, jurisdictions can plan for future land use, Urban Growth Areas (UGAs), infrastructure, and housing needs. A countywide allocation also helps jurisdictions demonstrate J ate adequate capacity to accommodate growth, ensuring GMA compliance, and ' p coordinating across city and county boundaries. This memo provides a basis for determininghow w population may be distributed and leaves a final decision of the referred p growth targets to the jurisdictions participating in the countywide planning process. 1of17 Ill. Regulatory Framework Population allocation occurs within a clear statutory and policy framework. OFM provides official countywide population projections (Low, Medium, and High) under RCW 43.62.035, which serve as the basis for planning assumptions across the state. RCW 36.70A.110 requires these forecasts to be allocated to each jurisdiction so that comprehensive plans reflect appropriate land -use capacity and urban service responsibilities. Grant County CWPP Policy 14 establishes the local criteria for distributing population based on historic development patterns, current planning initiatives, and contextual qualitative factors. This ensures that the allocation process is coordinated and grounded in state guidance and local planning objectives. Iv. Methodology Overview The countywide allocation process applies the factors outlined in Policy 14 to translate OFM's countywide forecast into jurisdiction -level allocations. The methodology incorporates a review of long-term and short-term population •trends, an evaluation of each jurisdiction's planning and development activities, and a balanced assessment of qualitative factors to refine results. These components are used to develop a range of allocation outcomes that reflect both measurable trends and to insights. The process is designed to be adaptable depending on which OFM projection (Low, Medium, or High) is ultimately selected for planning purposes. Washington Department of Commerce (Commerce) encourages jurisdictions to utilize Housing Planning for All Tool (HAP for allocating housing. The tool also provides population targets from OFM based on a selected jurisdiction, using decennial 2020 Census data as a projection baseline. Table 1: OFM GMA Population Projections, 2047 Grant County Projected Population, 2047 109,099 1 130,995 154,235 Source.- Nexus Planning Services 2025, based on Washington State Deparitment of Commerce HAPT Tool According to the WA Department of Commerce, Medium projection is considered the most accurate and commonly used by counties. Grant County's countywide population target may lie anywhere within the range and is not required to be the exact Low, Medium, or High number. 2 of 17 DRAFT 01.07.26 Based on the three options, an estimate of breakdown per constituent jurisdiction may av be calculated. Please note, this is not allocation, but simply an estimate of projection utilizing the current population share in the county. Table 2 Grant County OFM Targets Population Sure Breakdown 2047 per Jurisdiction Target (OFM) - Low Medium High MUM USTOW Grant County 106,250 100% Unincorporated Grant 47,235 44.63% 48,502 58,236 68,567 Incorporated Grant 59,015 55.54% Coulee City 560 0.53% 575 690 813 Coulee Dom (part) 0 0.00% - Electric City 975 0.92% 1,001 1,202 1,415 Ephrata 8,915 8.39% 9,154 10,991 12,941 George 900 0.85% 924 1,110 1.306 Grand Coulee 950 0.89% 975 17171 1,379 Hartline 180 0.17% 185 222 261 Krupp 45 0.04 % 46 55 65 Mattawa 3,890 3.66% 3,994 4,796 5,647 Moses Lake 27,530 25.91% 28,268 33,942 39,963 Quincy 8,330 7.84% 8,553 10,270 12,092 Royal City 1,960 1.84% 2,013 2,416 2,845 Soap Lake 1,810 1.70% 1.859 2,232 2,627 Warden 2,765 2.60% 2,839 3,409 4,014 Wilson Creek 205 0.19% 210 253 298 5 o:g c; OK 2025, Nexus Plicanning Services,2025 3 of 17 V. Historical Growth Trends Consistent with Policy 14, the analysis begins with a comprehensive •review of documented historical growth rates over the past 20 years, the past decade, and the most recent two-year period. This information provides a baseline understanding of which jurisdictions have historically accommodated the largest share of growth and whether recent trends support or contradict long-term patterns. Jurisdictions experiencing sustained growth in population •and housing construction are highlighted as areas where future growth could reasonably •be expected to continue. Conversely, jurisdictions with stagnant or declining population over recent periods are evaluated to determine whether such trends reflect long - term •limitations or short-term conditions that may change. Historical growth trends may not necessarily be a more •accurate representation of growth in comparison to OFM projections. OFM considers long-term demographic trends such as births, deaths, and migration patterns when •producing population projections. They also analyze economic conditions, housing trends, and historic growth rates to estimate how populations are likely to change over time. These factors are integrated into a cohort -component model to project population •for the state, counties, and cities. The purpose of reviewing historical growth is twofold: • Assessing how future projections based on previous years are similar to OFM projections. • Adjusting the population share amongst jurisdictions if necessitated by individual jurisdictions' trends. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR ) is a measure that expresses how fast something grows on average each year, assuming the growth happened at a steady, compounded rate, even if actual year-to-year changes were •uneven. CAGR is often preferred over a simple Annual Average Growth Rate because the average can be skewed by unusually high or low individual years and does not account for compounding, which is how population, investment, and most long-term trends truly behave. In county Population trends, CAGR provides a clearer, more stable picture of historic growth by smoothing short-term fluctuations, such as economic cycles, migration spikes, or one-time events. OFM's 2025 population estimate is used as a baseline year to project the 2047 population, utilizing different CAGRs. 4 of 17 DRAFT 01.07.26 Table 3: Grant County Historical Population Growth Rates over the last decade Jurisdiction 2010 2020 CAGR 2047 (CAGR 2010-2020) Grant County 89,120 999123 1% 134,266 Unincorporated Grant 40,134 44,987 1% 60,719 Incorporated Grant 481,986 54,136 1% 73,532 Coulee City 562 549 0% 5 . 32 Coulee Dom (part) 0 0 Electric City 968 956 0% 949 Ephrata 7,664 8,477 1% 11,129 George 501 809 5% 2,583 Grand Coulee 988 972 0% 916 Hortline 151 180 2% 265 Krupp 48 49 0% 47 Mottawa 4,437 3,335 -3% 2,076 Moses Lake 20,366 25,146 2% 437777 Quincy 6,750 7,543 1% 10,636 Royal City 21140 11,776 -2% 1,301 Soap Lake 1�514 1,691 1% 2�308 Warden 21692 27449 _1% 2,245 Wilson Creek 205 204 0% 203 Source,- OFM. 2025; Nex!,s Planning Ser-Ave-lices, 2-02:) Table 4: Grant County Historical Population Growth Rates over the last two decades 5 of 17 DRAFT 01.07.26 Jurisdiction 2000 2020 CAGR 2047(CAGR 2000-2020) Grant County 74,698 997123 WIN, 1% 145038 Unincorporated Grant 35,797 44,987 1% 60,734 Incorporated Grant 38,901 54,136 2% 84887 , Coulee City 600 549 0% 508 Coulee Dam (part) 4 0 Electric City 922 956 0% 1,015 Ephrata 6,808 8,477 1% 11347 , George 528 809 2% 1,439 Grand Coulee 897 972 0% 1,038 Hartline 134 180 1% 249 Krupp 60 49 -1% 36 mattawa 2,609 31,335 1% 5,096 Moses Lake 14,953 25,146 3% 48,766 Quincy 5,044 7543 2% 12,969 Royal City 1,823 11776 0% 1904 1 Soap Lake 1,733 1,691 0% 1,762 Warden 21544 2,449 0% 2652 1 Wilson Creek 242 204 -1% 170 Table 5: Grant County Historical Population Growth Rates over the last two years 6 of 17 2023-2025) Coulee Dom (part) 0 0 Toble 6: Comporison of Populotion Shore from 2000 to 2025 7of17 11 11RAFT 01.0726 Jurisdiction 2000 2010 2020 2023 25 20Coulee �ity 1% 1% 1% 1% Coulee Dom (part) 0% 0% 0% 1% Electric City 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% Ephrata 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% George 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Grand Coulee 1% 1% 1% 1% Hartline 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Krupp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mattawa f-2) 3% 4%(+1) Moses Lake 20% 23%(+3) 25%(+2) 25% 26% Quincy 7% 8% (r-A 8% 8% 8% Royal City 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Soap Lake 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Warden 3% 3% 2%(-l) 3% (+1' 3% Wilson Creek 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Unincorporated Grant 48% 45% 1-3) 45% 45% 44%( - Incorporated Grant Total 52% 55% 55% 55% 56% Grant County TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Previous period changes are shown in parentheses. So'L rce-, Nexus Plannlng Serv'Ices, 2025 Table 7: Comparing Historical Growth to OFM Targets 8 of 17 2047 OFM 2047 CAGR Projection n Jurisdiction Low Medium Hugh 2010- 2020 2000- 2020 2023- 2025 CAGR CAGR CAGR Grantm 71 •• 5 4 154,235 • • 1459038 Unincorporated Grant 48,502 58,236 68,567 607719 607734 144,825- 547047 Incorporated Grant Coulee City 575 690 813 73532 84,887 92,724 Coulee Dam (part) - 532 508 560 Electric City 1001 > 1 202 1,415 949 1 1,015 ~ 1,092 Ephrata 9,154 10,991 12,941 11 129 117347 11,810 George 924 1,110 1306 27583 1,439 1,083 Grand Coulee 975 1,171 11379 916 1,038 847 Nartfine 185 222 261 265 249 180 Krupp 46 55 65 47 36 45 f�fattawa 3,994 4,796 5,647 2,076 57096 9,848 Moses take 28,268 339942 39,963 43 777 48,766 47,265 Quincy 8,553 10,270 12,092 10 636 12,969 11,888 Royal City 2,013 2,q.16 2 845 17301 17904 2,604 Soap Lake 1,859 21232 2,627 21308 11762 27388 Warden 2,839 3,409 4,014 2,245 2,652 4,897 Wilson Creek 210 21153 298 r �.�. , .� y' �'- '�°3 f i" s f; �' aa - ," ,. o,; i i� '�.. a s° {-'' based " r "'�""°' y =_.3 ..ems _i "6 its -,.1 ss, 2 sw ��. >5 'n ` ., � 3 2 d E L� /"" share rs m s y ,_ s` 3'�''� 203 ^' "e �` � 'd� s^� breakdown "�'�}a's.F"5 � 170 205 :���� � �`a„d F � ;� � "i,�f". ; ' a .� s p � r i z..,.t °r : - ;" F =; -� �� s .Z %3� r �""ek Nexus i� e`i d i' sP la�'=Y`3ii.`"`�7 Services, 2 vl. Development Activity Trends A review of completed housing units over the past 15(2010-2025)p years provides a clear empirical record of development activity across the county and offers valuable context for population allocation. This information helps identify ' p t�fy where residential 9 of 17 growth has historically occurred, the consistent of building g trends, and how local market conditions and infrastructure capacityhave supported pp rted new housing. Incorporating this data into the allocation process ensure s es future population distributions reflect demonstrated development patterns • • p p ns and the relative ability of each jurisdiction to accommodate additional growth. 0 FIVI's Postcensa l Permit data is used to estimate completed housing units in Grant County. These estimates represent generalized planning g assumptions and may i differ from actual development conditions in individual jurisdictions. Frame Housing units include any single-family, duplex, 3/4 units, and 5+ units completed. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are viewed separately. Table 8. Average Annual Frame Housing Units Permitted b ' y Jurisdiction, 2010 to 2025 JurisdictionCompleted Frame r g Percentage of Housing Units Homes wted ComplHomes Total Gram County TOTAL ........:.....:... 449 466 Unincorporated Grant 2,093 131 1.0% 28% Incorporated Grant Coulee city 1 1 Coulee Dam (part) 0 o% 0 Electric City 25 0 Ephrata 473 2 30 0% George 90 6 b% Grand Coulee 15 1 1/ Q Q% Hartline 3 0 0 /o Krupp0 0 0 Mattawa 221 14 Q% 0 Moses Lake 31215 201 3/ Quincy 780 43Q� 49 10% Royal City 223 14 0 3/ Soap Lake 126 $ 20 � Warden 173 11 2/ Wilson Creek 1 0 0% *Unincorporated county to s only ailablo for 2011-2025, Source: OFM, 2025.: Nexus Plannin Services, er if es 202 Table 9: Average Annual ADU Housing Units Permitted b ' y Jurisdiction, 2010 to 2025 10of 17 D 1 01`... a Y \ �;; �� , _ Jurisdiction ' • ' of Percentage ! A Completed Total ADUs Grant County TOTAL 61 4.Q1 100% Unincorporated Grant* 47 3.13 0 Incorporated Grant 78I Coulee City 2 0. 13 a 3/ Coulee Dom (part) 0 0.00 Electric City 2 0.13 0% 0 3r Ephrata 2 C�.13 8 f George 0 0.00 0/ Grand Coulee 1 0.06 2 0 /o Hartline 0 0.00 0 /o Krupp 0 0.00 a% Mattawa 0 0.00 0/ Moses Lake 1 0.06 o Quincy S 0.31 g% Royal City 0 0.00 0f Soap Lake 0 0.00 0 % 0 Warden 1 0.06 2/ Wilson Creek 0 o•o0 0 0/ 'Unincorporated county data- is only available for 2011 - 2 05 a Source: . FM, 2025; Nexus Planning Services. 2025 v11. Initial Allocation Forecast The Medium OFM projection is recommended as the basis f ' • or assessing countywide population allocation. Commerce identifies it as the most accura te and commonly used forecast, and it provides a balanced midpoint that avoids the r' - risk of under or over - planning for future growth. Using the Medium projection gives Grant County and • ts jurisdictions a consistent, data -supported startingpoint that ' p closely aligns with the last decade (2010-2020) trends. However, each jurisdiction in Grant J ant County may modify this baseline through the memo's "jurisdiction -s -specific forecast ' p determination steps, based on context -specific factors. Table 10: Grant County QFM Targets Population Share Breakdown• per Jurisdiction Forecast 11of17 2047 Target (OFM) Medium • Low High P.1 ilk Unincorporated Grant 44.63% 48,502 58,236 689567 Incorporated Grant 55.54% Coulee City 0.53% 575 690 813 Coulee Dom (part) 0.00% - Electric City 0.92% 1,001 11202 11415 Ephrata George 8.39% 9,154 10,991 12,941 Grand Coulee 0.85% 0.89% 924 975 11110 17306 Hartline 0.17% 185 1,171 222 1379 � 261 Krupp 0.04% 46 55 65 Mattawa 3.66% 3,994 41796 57647 Moses Lake 25.91% 28,268 337942 39,963 Quincy Royal City 7.84% 8,553 10,270 12�092 Soap Lake 1.84% 1.70% 2,013 1,859 21416 2,845 Warden 2.60% 21839 21232 31409 2�627 42014 Wilson Creek . f l r K 0.19% 4 210 253 298 "Ource, I'l" 2025: Nextis Planning Services, 2025 Vill. Jurisdiction -specific Population Forecast Determination Steps 1. Select an OFM Forecast Target (Low, Medium, or High). Begin by choosing which countywide OFM projection best reflects your jurisdict�on's planning expectations, policy direction, and anticipated development capacity. 2. Compare the Chosen Target to Historical CAGR and Development Activity. Review Your jurisdiction's historic growth using CAGR from the past 10, 20, and 2 years, and compare these trends to the OFM target. Consider historical housing development trends. Identify whether OFM assumptions appear higher, lower, or generally consistent with observed growth. 3. Apply Modifiers to Adjust Jurisdiction -specific Forecast if -needed). 12 of 17 Evaluate jurisdiction -specific conditions that may warrant Y a percentage entage increase or decrease adjustment from the current 2025 population share. Percentage ercentage ranges are approximate, higher number may be applied if appropriate. Infrastructure: capacity of water, sewer, transportation, and l ' . p panned capital improvements. o Adequate or expanding service capacity --� +0-5% o Limited or constrained capacity --> -0-5% Unaccounted Population / Migration: seasonal workforce population, kforce inflow, or recent demographic shifts not captured in OFM estimates. o Areas with seasonal population, labor inflow, or recent in -mi -migration anon not reflec ted in OFM --> +1-5% o Areas with declining temporary or seasonal population -4 -1-3% p o • Building Permits (Current and Pipeline): recent development activity p ctivity and the strength of housing pipelines. o Strong recent permitting or major pipeline projects --> +2-8 0 o Low construction activity or minimal pipeline --> -1-5% Local Economics/Employment: major employers, new industries , or economic changes that could influence future population. o New employers, industries, or economic growth areas ---� +1-5% 0 o Slowing or shrinking employment base -4 -1-4% Local Demographics: population's age breakdown household siz e, and community characteristics that may affect demand for housing. g o Indicators of higher demand for population growth --> +0-3% o Indicators of population stabilization or decline -> -0-3% 4. Refine and Document Your Jurisdiction's Forecast. Combine the selected target, your CAGR and development trends ' p ds comparison, as well as any applicable modifiers to finalize a jurisdiction -specific forecast. Brie f ly document the rationale. 13of 17 Ix. Allocation Results Summary The Grant County countywide population allocation process was developed to support coordinated Comprehensive Plan updates in compliance with Washington's Growth Management Act. On November 24, 2025, Grant County Community Development staff, Nexus Planning Services, and planning representatives from constituent cities and towns met to review population allocation materials and discuss preliminary growth targets for 2047. Cities were provided with trend analyses and a range of allocation options to support informed selection of population targets that reflect both countywide consistency and local conditions. During the meeting, each constituent city and town in attendance selected a population growth target for its community using the allocation framework and local knowledge. Selections from some jurisdictions were then adjusted through follow-up coordination via email. Cities and towns unable to attend the meeting were contacted through email and mail for their input, to ensure every jurisdiction within Grant County was engaged in the process. Based on this collaborative process, Grant County selected 133,612 as the overall county population target for 2047, which is slightly above the OFM Medium projection baseline. Jurisdiction -specific targets are outlined in the table below. 14 of 17 Table 11: Grant County Final 2047 Population Targets and Share Breakdown per Jurisdiction 2025 OFM Current % of 2047 2047 Share of Jurisdiction Population total County Population total County Estimates Population Ta rgets Population Grant County 1K250 100% 133,612 100% Unincorporated Grant 47,235 44.63% 58,236 43.59% Incorporated Grant 59,015 55.54% 75,377 56.41% Coulee City 560 0.53% 690 0.52% Coulee Dom (part) 0 0.00% - 0.00% Electric City 975 0.92% 11202 0.90% Ephrata 8,915 8.39% 10,911 8.23% George 900 0.85% 17208 0.90% Grand Coulee 950 0.89% 1,171 0.88% Hartline 180 0.17% 222 0.17% Krupp 45 0.04% 55 0.04% Mattawa 3,890 3.66% 51647 4.23% Moses Lake 27,530 25.91% 33,942 25. 40% Quincy 8,330 7.84% 11740 8.79% Royal City 1,960 1.84% 27416 1.81% Soap Lake 11810 1.70% 27429 1.82% Warden 21765 2.60% 31409 2.55% Wilson Creek 205 0.19% 253 0.19% Source.- OFM, 202.',- Nexus Planning 15 of 17 DRAFT 01.07.26 The share of population among Grant County cities and towns will shift from 2025 to 2047, as seen below. The percentages of the share difference are relative to changes across the county, out of the total countywide population target. Table 12: Grant County 2025 to 2047 Population Share Comparison per Jurisdiction Jurisdiction r 2*25 Yo Share of total 2047 % Share of total 2025-2047 % Share County Population County Population Difference Grant County 100% 100% 100% 'Unincorporated Grant 44.63% 43.59% -0.87% Incorporated Grant 55.54% 56.41% 0.87% Coulee City 0.53% 0.52% -0-01% Coulee Dom (part) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Electric City 0.92% 0.90% -0.02% Ephrata 8.39% 8.23% -0.16% George 0.85% 0.90% 0.06% Grand Coulee 0.89% 0.88% -0.02% Hortline 0.17% 0.17% 0.00% Krupp 0.04% 0.04% 0.00% Mottawa 3.66% 4.23% 0.57% Moses Lake 25.91% 25.40% -0.51% Quincy 7.841 8.791 0.95% Royal City 1.84% 1.81% -0.04% Soup Lake 1.70% 1.82% 0.11% Warden 2.60% 2.55% -0.05% Wilson Creek 0.19% 0.19% 0.00% Source: OFK 2025; Nexus Plar-inin 16 of 17 X. Differences Between Population and Housing Allocation Population and housing allocations are closely connected because both estimate how future growth will be distributed among jurisdictions, but they diverge in 'Important ways that result in different percentage allocations. Population allocation begins with OFM projections and assigns each jurisdiction a share of future residents, which then informs subsequent steps in housing allocation. However, housing allocation must translate that population into housing units, and the relationship is not one-to-one: jurisdictions differ in household sizes, proportions of group -quarters residents, vacancy needs, and historic housing underproduction, all of which influence how many units are required to support a given share of future population. These factors mean a jurisdiction's population share often does not match its housing share, leading to higher or lower percentages in the final housing allocation even though both start from the same population assumptions. X1. Next Steps Countywide population allocation should be viewed as an initial data -driven estimate that may shift slightly as jurisdictions complete the remaining steps of the planning process, including housing allocation and the Land Capacity Analysis (LCA). Although population allocation is an early input that informs both LCA and housing allocation, the results of those steps can also refine the population numbers. For example, the LCA may reveal that a jurisdiction has more or less development capacity than assumed, supporting small upward or downward adjustments to its allocated population. Similarly, housing allocation may indicate that a jurisdiction must accommodate more, or fewer units than initially anticipated, which may require aligning population assumptions to ensure consistency with projected housing need. Updates to Countywide Planning Policies and review of UGA boundaries may further clarify where growth can, be supported. For these reasons, the countywide allocation may change incrementally as subsequent analyses provide additional information. 17 of 17 DRAFT 02.17.2026 GRANT COUNTY COMPRENENSWE PLAN 2027 To: Grant County Planning Managers From: Nexus Planning Services, Grant County Comprehensive Plan Consultant Date: 02/17/2026 Subject: Grant County Land Capacity Analysis Methodology Recommendations and Initial Housing Allocation I. Introduction This memorandum outlines the technical basis for conducting Land •Capacity Analysis (LCA) for each city and town in Grant County, in accordance with Washington's Growth Management Act (GMA). It also provides initial housing allocation for each jurisdiction by income level. 11. Purpose of Land Capacity Analysis Under the GMA, an LCA evaluates whether a jurisdiction has enough realistically developable land to accommodate its adopted population, housing, and employment growth targets over the 20-year planning period. The LCA provides the factual basis for the comprehensive plan's land use and housing elements by estimating how much development current zoning and other regulations can reasonably support. In practice, it ensures growth allocations are supported by adequate land supply and planned development occurs where urban services can be efficiently provided. According to the Revised Code of Washington (RCW) 36.70A.115(1): "Counties and cities that are required or choose to plan under RCW 36.70A.040 shall ensure that, taken collectively, adoption of and amendments to their comprehensive plans and/or development regulations provide sufficient capacity of land suitable for development within their jurisdictions to accommodate their allocated housing and employment growth, including the accommodation of, as appropriate, the medical, governmental, educational, institutional, commercial, and industrial facilities related to such growth, as adopted in the applicable countywide planning policies and consistent with the twenty-year population forecast from the office of financial management." 1 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Land Capacity Analysis (LCA) must: • Demonstrate sufficient zoned land and densities within Urban Growth Areas (UGAs) to accommodate 20-year population, housing, employment, and nonresidential growth needs • Inventory developable land and evaluate the combined effect of development regulations to determine realistic, achievable capacity • Use reasonable assumptions, including market supply factors and a range of urban densities, and assess capacity for the area as a whole (not parcel -by-parcel) • Base estimates on what regulations allow, informed by permit data and long-term development trends rather than short-term market conditions • Compare assumed plan densities to achieved densities and identify or remove regulatory barriers if capacity is not being realized • Adjust zoning or policies if capacity is insufficient to meet growth targets Ill. Resources for Conducting an LCA 0 Urban Growth Area Guidebook (pages 34-59) * Guidance for U.pdating your Housim Element (Book 2)1 (pages 18-50) * Grant Counter GIS Data Download page IV. Methodology Overview The methodology outlined in this memorandum is focused on residential capacity only, as it directly ties to the ability to accommodate countywide housing allocation. This analysis does not consider employment targets. Moreover, this study will not provide information as to whether a city or town can accommodate expected commercial/ industrial growth. To determine residential capacity, the LCA methodology provides a few basic steps, each with its own assumptions and applications. The following is meant to be a general overview of Land Capacity Analysis steps and recommendations that could be more applicable to jurisdictions within Grant County, although not comprehensive. Please follow the LCA guidance provided by the Washington Department of Commerce for more detailed analysis instructions. Last updated in January 2026 2 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Figure 1: General Land Capacity Analysis Process o ° c Identify Residential Land Supply (per Residential Zone) AL Assign Zone Categories by Allowed Housing $ 7 Types and Potential Income Levels O Vacant Assign Development Partially -Developed StatusLo Underdeveloped Summarize Capacity 8 by Zone Category Exclude Lands Unlikely to Develop Compare Projected Housing Needs to Capacity DE L 4 Assume Future ..... .._ Density Standards �r5 Apply Reduction Factors (Market Factor, ROW, Critical Areas) a.M,w - , 6 Summarize Total Residential Capacity Jurisdiction Roles Cities and towns are expected to conduct an LCA for both incorporated and unincorporated Urban Growth Areas (UGAs). Therefore, the land quantity information shall be separated into these two categories. The County chooses to allocate hous ing to each jurisdiction's incorporated UGA and rural/unincorporated count areas. No housing . Y using is allocated to unincorporated UGAs. However, capacity information for those areas is still necessary to collect. If a jurisdiction cannot reasonably accommodate growth ' g within its city or town limits, allocation share may shift towards the unincorporated UGA, p This can be done as long as a jurisdiction can prove the inability to accommodate growth, . g h, and sufficient infrastructure is present in the unincorporated UGA. See section "V. Preliminary Housing Allocation" for more information. Figure 2: Grant County LCA Roles County Rural/unincorporated areas Cities and towns Incorporated UGA (city limits), Unincorporated UGA 3 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Cities and towns are responsible for demonstrating available land capacity (sometimes referred to as a "Land Quantity Analysis" or LQA) as part of the housing allocation process. Jurisdictions that have already completed an LCA or LQA using a different methodology may use existing capacity analysis, provided the information remains current and reasonably comparable, and therefore are not required to repeat the analysis. LCA Steps and Considerations The goal of an LCA is not to calculate theoretical maximum density but to identify reasonable and achievable buildout capacity that reflects actual development patterns and constraints. LCAs are typically completed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to inventory parcels, apply deductions for land that cannot develop, classify each parcel by development status, and calculate net housing capacity by zoning category. Limited technical assistance can be provided to jurisdictions with less staff capacity. Step 1. Remove undevelopable land. Typical deductions include: • Shorelines or water bodies • Public parks, schools, and government facilities • Easements and major utility tracts • Others Step 2. Classify parcels by development status. Only utilize parcels that are designated as residential. Each residential parcel should be categorized according to its likelihood of accommodating additional housing. Consistent definitions ensure comparable results across jurisdictions. The following definitions and development status signifiers are recommendations and may be different for your jurisdiction. 4 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Table 1: Assigning Development Status Parcels with no structures or only minimal improvements below a locally defined improvement value threshold, identified using assessor data and can verified with aerial imagery if needed and feasible. These should be reasonably available for development. This may or may not be present within a jurisdiction's Incorporated or Unincorporated UGAs. Land consists of properties assigned a land use classification code of "91- Undeveloped" by the Grant County Assessor. Includes all properties assigned a land use classification code of "81 - Resource - Agriculture" or "83 - Resource - Agriculture Current Use" by the Grant County Assessor. Properties whose assessed Represents properties that are improvement value accounts currently under-utilized or partially- artially- for So% or less of the total used for development. property v classified p p y value are classified as Redevelopable. Partially -used: Developed but contains enough land to subdivide or add units under current zoning Underutilized: Existing use is lower intensity than allowed and likely to redevelop over time (e.g., single- family in multifamily zone, low improvement -to -land value). Properties with development Remove from land supply, Y, already built since the baseline year add units separately to p Y or with approved, permitted, or totals. vested projects (including subdivisions, master plans, or development agreements) that are reasonably certain to occur, and they must be counted separately as 5 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 net new units and removed from remaining land capacity calculations to avoid double counting in the LCA. Properties that do not meet any of the above criteria are classified as Developed and are assumed to have no additional development capacity. Step 3. Categorize land by zone and calculate gross capacity in acres Step 4. Apply realistic density assumptions. Assumed densities for use in the LCA should consider the maximum densities allowed under zoning, historic trends, and achieved residential densities, as well as factors, which may cause trends to change in the future. Compare allowed densities to achieved densities to identify zones that have historically underperformed relative to planned levels of development. At a minimum, assumed densities should reflect the current achieved residential densities for each zone but should not exceed the maximum density allowed by right under the development code. Step 5. Apply reduction factors. Reduction factors, such as market factor, critical areas, and Right-of-way (ROW) infrastructure, should be applied to acreage in each zone. Critical Areas can be removed spatially or by applying the reduction factor. Each jurisdiction can choose the appropriate pathway based on local knowledge. Different zones may have different reductions based on Vacant and Redevelopable land status. For example, zones with larger amounts of vacant land could need a higher ROW reduction. Below are the recommended ranges for reduction percentages. If cities and towns go above the maximum range, justifications should be documented and provided to the county. 6 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Table 2: Recommended Reduction Factor Ranges Step b. Calculate housing capacity per zone. Calculate net developable acres per zone by applying assumed density and reduction factors to the gross acreage. Step 7. Relate zone categories to potential income levels and housing types served. Step 8. Summarize capacity by zone category. Step 9. Compare capacity to allocated housing needs. Preliminary housing allocation provided in this memorandum can be utilized for initial capacity deficit assessment. Step 10. If a deficit is found, implement actions to increase capacity for one or more housing needs. Re -asses capacity based on actions. Consider: • Upzoning or expanding residential capacity • Allowing middle housing or ADUs • Reducing minimum lot sizes • Streamlining development standards Step 11. Identify future housing capacity that requires subsidies This is a newly required step of an LCA. Since land capacity alone is insufficient to serve extremely low, very low, and some low-income households, jurisdictions should also identify the amount of housing capacity that would likely require subsidies or incentives to serve the households at planned income levels. 7 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 ADU Capacity An accessory dwelling unit (ADU) is a self-contained residential unit located within, attached to, ordetached from aprincipal dwelling onthe same lot, providing independent living facilities including sleeping, cooking, and sanitation. A[)Usare typically smaller than traditional single-family homes, making them amore affordable housing option that integrates well within low- and moderate -density residential neighborhoods. House Bil|l337 (codified as RCW 36.70A.880, 681ond 696) requires fully planning cities and counties to allow two ADUs on all residential lots that allow single family homes within an urban growth area, with some limitations. While the statute doesn't explicitly say boinclude AC)Ucapacity inaLand Capacity Analysis, the LCA itself must account for all realistic capacity that the comprehensive plan and development regulations allow. Because/\[)Us are now explicitly permitted uses under state law, their capacity potential should be'Included when assessing residential land capacity for housing need. A participation reduction factor of 1-10% is generally applied toall potential /\[)Us. Income levels ofD-5D96ofArea Median Income (AM I) are not expected to be served by A DUs. "Guidance for Updating your Housing Element (Book 2)"prOVides detailed guidance on how ADU capacity can be calculated. Consistent with GMA's housing element requirements, jurisdictions must plan for and accommodate afull range of housing types to meet the needs of all economic segments of the population, including emergency housing, emergency shelters, and permanent supportive housing. Aspart ofthe LCA'cities and towns must demonstrate that their comprehensive plans and development regulations provide sufficient land capacity and appropriate zoning to allow these uses within UGAs. At a rninirnurn, this includes identifying where emergency housing is permitted, ensuring the use is allowed in zones with reasonable access to services and infrastructure, and evaluating whether development standards orsiting requirements create barriers to establishing such 8of13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Where emergency housing is permitted broadly and without undue constraints (e.g., allowed by right or with clear, objective standards in multiple zones), jurisdictions may document this regulatory capacity qualitatively. However, if capacity is limited or uncertain, the LCA should include a quantitative assessment of available sites or acreage to demonstrate that projected need can be accommodated. Vacant or redevelopable parcels can be used both for residential capacity and emergency housing capacity simultaneously. Any identified gaps should be addressed through zoning amendments, expanded allowances, or removal of regulatory barriers to ensure adequate and equitable siting opportunities consistent with GMA housing planning requirements. Resources for Conducting LCA for Unincorporated UGAs Land in each jurisdiction's unincorporated UGAs utilizes County zoning and land use, usually specific to these areas. For the purposes of conducting LCA for unincorporated UGA, utilize Grant County Municipal Code, Chapter 23.04, Zoning Districts, for any information regarding allowable densities, housing types, etc. 9 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 V. Preliminary Housing Allocation Housing allocation for a county begins with established population growth targets, which are typically adopted through regional or state forecasting processes and reflect the amount of growth the county and its jurisdictions are expected to accommodate over the planning horizon. To translate these population targets into housing needs, projected population increases are converted into an estimated number of households using assumptions about average household size, vacancy rates, and housing choice. This process produces the total number of additional housing units required to serve future residents, which are then distributed across cities and unincorporated areas based on factors such as existing development patterns, land capacity, access to services and infrastructure, and local planning goals. For this planning effort, the WA State Department of Commerce's Housing Allocation and Planning Tool (RAPT) was used to develop a preliminary housing allocation. HAPT applies consistent demographic data, household characteristics, and policy assumptions to estimate total housing needs and to allocate units by jurisdiction and income level, supporting compliance with GMA requirements. The tool provides a data -driven starting point that local governments refine through coordination and local analysis to ensure allocations align with land use capacity, infrastructure availability, and community objectives. Population and housing allocations are closely connected because both estimate how future growth will be distributed among jurisdictions, but they diverge in important ways that result in different percentage allocations. Housing allocation must translate population into housing units, and the relationship is not one-to-one: jurisdictions differ in household sizes, proportions of group -quarters residents, vacancy rates, and historic housing underproduction, all of which influence how many units are required to support a given share of future population. These factors mean a jurisdiction's population share often does not match its housing share, leading to higher or lower percentages in the final housing allocation even though both start from the same population assumptions. 10 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 The following formula has been recommended by the WA Department of Commerce for converting population numbers to housing: Table 3: Grant County - Population to Housing Allocation Conversion Jurisdiction 2047 Population Uroup 'qik.uarters Mousehold Size 2047 Housing (2020) (2024) Units (Total) Grant County 1339612 Z200 2.79 497927 Unincorporated Grant 58,236 1,575 2,9 5 * 20,658 Incorporated Grant 75,377 625 2.60'' 29,270 Coulee City 690 0 1.98 370 Coulee Dam (part) 0 0 - - Electric City 1,202 0 2.23 571 Ephrata 10,991 222 2.60 4,391 George 1,208 0 3.19 401 Grand Coulee 1,171 10 2.10 586 Hartline 222 0 1.77 133 Krupp 55 0 2.06 29 Mattawo 5,647 40 3.84 1,548 Moses Lake 33,942 272 2.55 13,996 Quincy 11,740 23 3.0® 4,140 Royal City 2,416 33 3.53 716 Soap Lake 2,429 25 2.41 1,058 Warden 31409 0 2.99 1,209 Wilson Creek 1) r, IQ X- -IF %-; 0 2.17 123 Sources: 2024 OFM Population Estimates, 2020 Decennial Census (Table P5), 2024 Census ACS Estimates (Table S1101). Unincorporated Grant County Household Size data comes from 2020 WA OFM. ** Incorporated Grant County Household Size is derived from the average across oil cities1towns. 11 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 Table 4: Grant County - Preliminary Housing Allocation Share jurisaiction ?-'OPulation Share Abusing Share % Difference Grant County .......... .......... 100.00% 100.00% Unincorporated Grant 43.59% 41.38% -2.21% Incorporated Grant 56.41% 58.62% 2.21% Coulee City 0.52% 0.74% 0.22% Coulee Dam (part} 0.00% 0.00% - Electric City 0.90% 1.14% 0.24% Ephrata 8.23% 8.79% 0.56% George 0.90% 0.80% -0.10% Grand Coulee 0.88% 1.17% 0.29% Hartline 0.17% 0.27% 0.10% Krupp 0.04% 0.06% 0.02% Mattawa 4.23% 3.10% -1.13% Moses Lake 25.40% 28.03% 2.63% Quincy 8.79% 8.29% -0.50% Royal City 1.81% 1.43% -0.38% Soap Lake 1.82% 2.12% 0.30% Warden 2.55% 2.42% -0.13% Wilson Creek 0.19% 0.25% 0.06% Sources: Nexus Planning Services, 2025. The Washington State Department of Commerce's Housing for All Planning Tool (RAPT) is a technical support tool used to help counties allocate projected housing needs across jurisdictions in a manner consistent with the GMA, fair housing principles, and local planning assumptions. HAPT offers three allocation approaches: • Method A distributes housing based primarily on population or household growth shares. • Method B allocates housing based on existing housing stock or baseline conditions. • Method C allocates housing based on each jurisdiction's relative capacity and opportunity to accommodate housing, incorporating factors such as land capacity, access to jobs and services, and infrastructure availability. Method C is generally preferred because it is the most policy -responsive and defensible approach, as it aligns housing allocations with where housing can realistically be 12 of 13 DRAFT 02.17.2026 accommodated while supporting efficient urban growth patterns. This method is the preferred method for Grant County, as recommended by the WA Department of Commerce. Table 4: Grant County - Preliminary Housing Allocation Share utilizing RAPT Method C -'vim+► -c-.�• ► �r�� , G vG V, 1'MAuz) rluraurig Jf')"i/iCeS, 1 vL�) v1. Next Steps 1. The Grant County team will collect initial land quantity information from cities and towns after some analysis has been conducted. Housing allocations can be adjusted based on initial LCA results (Steps 1-9), if appropriate. If a jurisdiction has no way of accommodating housing demand within the incorporated UGA, part of the allocation could go to the unincorporated UGA. 2. Final housing allocation numbers will be agreed upon, so each jurisdiction can finalize their LCAs (Steps 9-12). 13of 13 B . 7LDING Total Submitted current month 35 Total Issued current month 33 Submitted by Portal 33 Submitted in office or by mail 2 35 Accessory to SFR 7 Commercial, Add'n, Alteration 8 Demolition 4 Manufactured, Mobile, PMRV 6 Mechanical 3 Modular, FAS 0 Plumbing 1 Residence, Add'n, Alteration 6 35 DEVELOPMENT SERVICES GIM Grant County Development Services February 2026 Page I FIRE MARSHAL Total Submitted current month 5 Total Issued current month 2 Submitted by Portal 5 Submitted in office or by mail 5 FM Construction 1 FM Operational 4 IWO ------ - PLANNING Address 13 Administrative Approval 0 Alt Final 0 AOI 0 Boundary Line Adj / Seg 3 BSP - Final 1 BSP - Prelim 0 Comp Plan Amend & UDC 0 Conditional Use Permit 3 Development Agreement 0 Discretionary Use Permit 1 Floodplain Development Permit 0 Pre -Application Conference 0 Planned Unit Development 0 Rezone 0 Reasonable Use Exemption 0 SEPA 3 Shoreline Exemption 3 Shoreline Permit 2 Short Subdivision - Final 6 Short Subdivision - Prelim 1 Site Plan Review 0 Subdivision - Alt 0 Subdivision - Final 0 Subdivision - Prelim 0 Transient Residence 2 UDC Amendment 1 Utility Easement Ext/Alt 0 Variance 0 Total Submitted Current Month 39 REVENUE - Total Deposits to - Building & Fire Marshal JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YTD TOTALS 2026 145,993 192,415 2025 106,627 74,592 105,959 120,805 80,567 130,322 72,855 160,379 53,972 541,527 133,684 84,369 338,408 1,665,657 2024 89,867 134,314 164,421 209,010 403,104 148,347 409,414 182,135 178,532 177,223 89,722 107,533 2,293,618 2023 75,058 75,184 146,574 52,136 65,846 72,896 160,096 122,269 229,080 193,687 129,045 104,348 1,426,219 2022 57,907 77,518 115,938 136,615 69,697 124,195 119,454 104,077 77,563 72,773 71,670 33,658 1,061,065 2021 100,634 141,137 132,394 157,315 97,430 102,468 100,979 89,161 72,461 131,084 52,717 74,938 1,252,718 2020 49,507 73,100 69,031 33,351 59,050 99,208 107,035 58,555 74,159 112,694 60,709 75,255 871,654 2019 66,404 53,752 112,898 119,129 114,710 67,952 73,726 90,403 107,578 106,807 53,035 55,884 1,022,278 2018 98,766 75,264 116,947 73,959 83,331 83,592 154,358 102,688 92,607 78,453 105,383 57,852 1,123,200 2017 32,840 53,670 98,562 100,309 88,954 89,813 74,592 79,1244 82,186 80,123 61,745 43,615 885,654 2016 26,491 52,517 80,066 95,765 105,484 79,092 83,473 70,319 67,200 46,827 58,033 48,874 814,143 2015 67,618 61,122 77,065 62,653 92,795 69,859 68,458 56,825 72,217 68,101 47,980 64,587 809,279 2014 45,440 63,648 74,594 53,716 93,601 57,850 85,489 89,423 73,443 55,980 48,144 61,379 802,707 2013 52,821 38,820 48,884 81,996 96,685 48,834 67,903 62,731 60,333 57,743 45,383 46,203 708,335 2012 26,966 25,748 65,297 95,228 87,701 68,887 72,206 89,501 57,941 44,128 26,432 41,157 701,192 2011 25,427 32,240 65,252 76,693 74,534 36,694 39,373 61,474 54,560 52,012 52,103 43,067 613,430 2010 25,259 43,549 66,130 71,435 52,642 151,438 60,612 44,589 52,516 84,979 66,325 36,285 755,758 - ------ Revenue Totals represented total deposit collections including Planning % and State Code Fees through 2017 Grant County Development Services February 2026 Page 2 REVENUE - Total Deposits to Planning (Excluding Grants/Dept of Ecology) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YTD TOTALS Plan Pmts 15,015 22,450 37,465 PL Misc (2 accts) - Old Bldg Pmt 5% - 2025 Totals 15,015 22,450 - - - - - - - - - - 37,465 2025 Totals 23,061 19,155 25,007 26,978 28,331 14,573 41,918 10,364 11,309 218,381 14,311 7,983 441,371 2024 Totals 20,038 20,806 16,729 21,339 9,906 29,162 34,644 14,273 23,660 32,831 23,426 36,456 283,270 APPS IN JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL YTD AVG * Note - some previous month numbers may change with the next report as Portals are accepted, returned for add'I info or voided due to SmartGov tracking 2026 36 35 71 36 2025 48 47 55 52 38 55 56 39 48 57 30 34 559 47 2024 46 53 99 58 67 81 61 53 39 54 24 38 673 56 2023 34 73 61 51 49 87 59 100 58 52 41 38 703 59 2022 57 71 75 70 90 81 71 51 66 56 43 33 764 64 2021 108 162 85 95 79 83 52 77 49 73 60 50 973 81 2020 70 67 67 62 45 84 76 85 80 113 73 131 953 79 2019 76 63 76 72 87 56 68 96 83 78 61 46 862 72 2018 68 142 75 72 94 88 63 85 73 79 96 48 983 82 2017 34 76 74 91 811 92 71 66 60 96 64 37 842 70 2016 49 76 99 52 69 113 65 73 55 57 49 47 804 67 2015 38 48 68 51 73 61 41 43 72 62 40 39 636 53 2014 59 60 44 76 67 50 76 51 56 69 37 63 708 59 2013 23 49 44 56 70 76 52 52 45 47 32 39 585 49 2012 30 56 67 58 75 68 57 57 45 49 35 37 634 53 2011 33 53 69 50 58 58 51 60 51 44 41 31 599 50 2010 33 45 117 70 61 61 53 52 52 54 16 48 662 55 PERMITS ISSUED JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL YTD AVG 2026 37 33 70 35 2025 36 27 50 57 75 42 35 39 20 50 34 44 509 42 2024 27 41 45 53 61 80 44 77 46 60 50 35 619 52 2023 46 35 55 54 47 49 54 65 49 52 51 44 601 50 2022 40 59 76 61 56 84 68 68 49 52 46 32 691 58 2021 80 66 114 91 76 95 81 57 63 96 62 52 933 78 2020 42 56 43 24 71 56 78 52 63 84 64 91 724 60 2019 74 63 51 96 75 57 56 86 90 92 47 42 829 69 2018 50 54 97 82 79 76 81 114 63 66 71 70 903 75 2017 40 33 64 76 78 79 66 80 71 71 70 38 766 64 2016 27 52 79 72 58 46 77 54 70 45 47 60 687 57 2015 32 56 75 49 43 66 58 56 54 67 38 45 639 53 2014 36 53 58 50 58 47 59 60 58 58 45 56 638 53 2013 37 29 53 50 57 50 61 47 43 47 40 33 547 46 2012 22 30 33 63 59 59 72 58 47 59 30 32 564 47 2011 29 32 68 49 70 45 61 43 52 59 40 38 586 49 2010 29 29 54 52 54 84 44 43 61 48 54 33 585 49 * Mid -Year Change 2022 to Permit Types put some projects that were previously listed as Buliding Permits into a separate FM Permit category after June 9, 2022